Vietnamese Equities: 2025 prospects for the “Next Asian Tiger”

A 4-part series on one of the most exciting growth prospects in SE Asia

Vietnam’s economy has come roaring back after a less-than-expected 2023 GDP growth rate of 5%, primarily motivated by its property sector slump, anti-corruption crackdowns, and slowing Chinese demand for exports. Q3 results of FY 2024 recorded its fastest growth in two years of 7.40% YoY, and projections for 2024’s annual GDP growth hover around 6%. Additionally, street estimates project growth to reach 6.2-6.7% in 2025, falling short of the Vietnamese government's optimistic target of 7.0-7.5%.[1] [2] Despite this gap, the government has set its sights even higher, aiming for an ambitious 8.0% in 2025, which sits nicely with the official narrative of double-digit growth between 2026-2030. [3] [4]

Fig 1. Historical analysis of Vietnam’s annual GDP Growth compared to peers. Vietnam has maintained a clear lead in stable, high economic growth, and is poised to do so in 2025. Source: LSEG Workspace

2025 would be another crucial year in the Vietnamese growth miracle. The reappearance of a protectionist America, Vietnam’s largest trading partner, and the structural slowdown of its northern neighbor China, Vietnam’s second largest trading partner, would indicate greater uncertainty to Vietnam’s export-driven growth narrative.[5] Concurrently, internal realignments in the domestic economy, notably in the real estate, financial, and energy sector would pose both risks and opportunities to the country.

This series shall include 4 articles targeting different aspects of the Vietnamese economy going into 2025. The analysis will employ a top-down, macro approach to evaluate possible strategies for investment allocation in the coming year.

References

[1] Oxford Economics. (2024, December 16). Vietnam: Growth will be ahead of regional peers in 2025.

[2] Asian Development Bank. Viet Nam: Economy.

[3] Reuters. (2024, December 2). Vietnam PM says aims for 8% GDP growth next year.

[4] Thailand Public Relations Department. (2024, December 19). Vietnam aims to achieve GDP growth of 8% in 2025.

[5] World Bank. (n.d.). Vietnam Trade.